The United States had the world hanging in suspense as they counted their votes, well into the week following the November 3 presidential elections. By Saturday, Joe Biden was declared president-elect, something that the incumbent president Donald Trump has yet to accept.
Pacific Ventury also spent a busy election day with three live panel discussions looking at the election system, its impact on the global as well as the Pacific, and what the future could look like depending on who emerges victorious.
Our speakers brought great insights into our coverage and we saw many of their indicators unfold as we watched the election results.
Today’s edition of The Global Tiller will recap our discussions from “#US2020: A Global Understanding” while also looking at the post-election landscape.
We are also happy to introduce a new look for The Global Tiller, which is now hosted on Substack.com. Do let us know how you like the new format!
Happy reading!
Hira
Editor of The Global Tiller
Understanding the system
In this session, we took a look at the context under which Americans were voting, how US elections are perceived around the world, how global markets were likely to be impacted and what were some key elements to look at when watching the elections unfold.
Americans were voting amid tense circumstances: historic inequality, police violence, massive protest movements and the unrelenting Covid-19 pandemic. On both sides of the aisle, they perceive the elections as existential: Biden supporters fearing authoritarianism and neofascism, while Trump supporters fearing communism.
Here’s what we thought would happen:
There was a fear of violent backlash - something new and unusual to the voting process in America.
What actually happened: Despite Fears of Violence, Election Day Proceeds Smoothly as Millions Line Up to Vote
Global markets thrived under the Trump administration yet they were paying more attention to the pandemic than to the US elections.
How markets reacted: Global markets rally as Biden heads for White House
High voter turnout looked promising for the Democrats. Polling numbers are a good indicator but polls have been wrong in the past, perhaps this time they’ve adjusted for previous oversights.
What was the turnout: Referendum on Trump shatters turnout records
Pay attention to the House and Senate races as well. If Democrats make significant gains there, it would make it easier for a Biden presidency to deliver on its campaign promises.
Senate and House races: Senate and House elections 2020: full results for Congress
In terms of foreign policy, many countries see little to no difference between the two administrations.
Outside perspective: The rest of the world has had it with US presidents, Trump or otherwise
💻 Watch this session here.
Understanding the global and Pacific context
In this session, we looked at how the Pacific is seen as a playground for big powers, such as the U.S. and China, what are the island nations expecting the U.S. to do in terms of climate change, and what role the U.S. plays on the global stage, specifically after withdrawing from the Paris Accord and the WHO.
The Trump administration did away with the previous administration’s policies of overt friendship with China while trying to stifle China’s rise through multilateralism approaches, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement.
Here’s what we discussed:
U.S. and China are interdependent in terms of trade. During the Trump administration, China became the enemy and there was an attempt at ‘decoupling’ but a democratic government may be inclined towards more peaceful exchanges and globalism.
Trump administration’s arm twisting to regulate trade with China may not be very successful, as it failed before in the 50s when it was applied to Japan. Biden administration likely to mount pressure on China without a trade war, but unlikely to rebuild global relations.
Trump administration’s skepticism on climate change has been a big deterrent for Pacific Island Nations, where it is seen as an existential threat. However, his administration spent more on the Pacific than previous ones.
Expectations that a Biden presidency will rely on multilateralism to maintain its relations in the Pacific, perhaps continue to let Australia play the role of the “sheriff” on its behalf.
U.S. withdrawal from the WHO in the middle of the pandemic showed ‘we don’t care’, also leaves a vacuum in global leadership which may be filled by China.
Since the Paris Agreement, the Pacific has come together to push for climate change policies, which can help push the coming administration to understand that climate change is about human rights.
China’s growing assertiveness in the region has given more leverage to the North Pacific nations when it comes to negotiating their terms with the U.S.
Hawaii’s commitment to the UN Sustainable Development Goals to implement a circular, island economy, can be a good example for Pacific Island Nations to pursue a more sustainable future.
Oceania can take this opportunity to mobilise people, share resources and question bigger countries through forums like Universal Periodic Review.
💻 Watch this session here.
Understanding the future
At the end of the day, we focused more on a future outlook. We started by taking a look at the impact of a Trump or a Biden presidency on regions, such as ASEAN and South Asia. We also discussed how the coming administration will handle existential threats we are facing, how do we reconcile with the reality that ‘Trumpism’ still has a lot of traction and what kind of leadership we need going forward.
Here’s what we discussed:
Biden presidency could be helpful in restoring ASEAN’s faith in the U.S. commitment to the region, which was completely withdrawn during the Trump administration in terms of development aid.
Important to note that Biden will inherit a world significantly different than what Obama had: U.S. has isolated its allies, pulled out of international organisations and withdrawn from diplomacy. U.S. soft power in the world is no longer the same.
It is crucial for the U.S. to come back into the Paris agreement as that’s the only way forward for a global world order rooted in human rights, dignity and democracy.
In the absence of the U.S. as a global presence, countries may need to develop their own consciousness. Smaller countries will need to work together to have their voices heard.
The way in which Pacific Islands have pushed big countries to look at climate change policies shows how we need to think beyond borders, as the threats facing us are global and require global response.
The future needs to be feminist as merely by providing women access to family planning and education, we can significantly reduce carbon emissions.
New Zealand provides lessons on what kind of leadership we need going forward, where diversity is embraced beyond tokenism.
People-powered protest movements across the world also give hope as it shows people are craving for change and rejecting repressive structures.
People have worked hard and died for the universal human rights standards that we have succeeded to put in place. We need to work towards pushing them further, instead of allowing narrow nationalistic outlooks pull us back.
We have to work on building a coalition of compassion, of courage and of consciousness at a global level. It is not just about elections anymore, we have to engage at many other levels.
💻 Watch this session here.
The post-election climate in the U.S. is unfolding as I write this newsletter. Here are some links that helped me make sense of what’s happening:
Read: America’s Next Authoritarian Will Be Much More Competent
Listen: What Happened? All the signs had seemed to point to a Democratic sweep. Why didn’t it materialise?
Laugh: I saw Donald Trump’s presidency come crashing down at Four Seasons Total Landscaping
Hope you enjoyed reading our coverage of the U.S. presidential elections.
We would love to hear from you about our thoughts on our discussion, and our new format.
If you like reading this newsletter, please do share with your friends and family and help us play our part in creating a global coalition of consciousness.
See you next week!