Grave situation
Issue 78 - 16 November 2021 (5-min read)
There is a reason why we are covering COP26 for the third time on this newsletter. This climate summit was touted to be the most important one after the Paris Agreement in 2015, when the world agreed on the goal to limit global warming below 2ºC, preferably to 1.5ºC. They promised to come back in five years with more ambitious goals and a report card that showed better policies.
Given all that has happened since then, including a global pandemic that revealed just how poorly our systems are designed to withstand global crises, everyone was hoping that COP26 will bring the world together to agree on the drastic steps needed to reverse, or at least slow down, climate change.
Unfortunately, that didn’t happen.
This week in The Global Tiller, we wrap up our coverage of the climate summit by giving you an overview of what happened and which goals, albeit weak, were agreed upon, how rich governments are faring versus those at the forefront of the climate disaster, and, where do we go from here?
The summit failed to meet its two basic goals: to keep the goal of 1.5ºC alive, which involves rapid decarbonisation of the global economy, and to phase out coal. The targets set for 2030 are so weak that they put us well on our way to a disastrous 2.7ºC of warming, according to Climate Action Tracker’s latest calculation. This means that there will be disastrous rainfalls and flooding, longer and severe droughts, and sea-level rise that could wipe entire countries and islands off the face of the planet.
However, several world leaders doubled down on the goal of 1.5ºC, at least in their public speeches. Call it "kicking the can down the road" but one good thing this did was that countries agreed to discuss nationally determined contributions (NDCs) at next year’s COP in Egypt and the one after that. Before this, NDCs were only on the agenda every five years but there seems to be a global recognition that we may not have the luxury of time to revise these targets.
One of the biggest disappointments on the last day of COP26 was India’s insistence on using the term 'phasing down coal' instead of 'phasing out' in the final draft of the agreement. Disappointing as it is, painting India as the only villain leaves out crucial actors in this drama. Initially, India had proposed a phase-out of all fossil fuels, not just coal, the latter affecting it disproportionately as compared to other countries. However, the US resisted this plan, which led to India’s last-minute objection — a major setback that brought the COP president on the verge of tears. Nevertheless, optimists and opportunists are basking in the glory of the small victory of putting fossil fuel language into the text.
Another important goal of COP26 was to ensure climate financing for developing countries to adapt to climate change, following up the 2009 pledge to mobilise $100 billion a year from 2020. So far, until 2019, only $80 billion flowed. The developing countries have been promised that financing will increase to $500 billion in the next five years and more of it will go towards adaptation than before. A lot of the countries on the forefront of climate disasters were hoping that a funding mechanism could be created for loss and damage from climate disasters but developed countries resisted the demands for 'reparations', saying it could lay them open to endless legal liability.
The summit had some small successes. The US and China have seemingly put aside other diplomatic issues in favour of working together for climate change. More than 100 countries have pledged to end deforestation and cut methane emissions by 30% by 2030. Costa Rica and Denmark have launched their Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance to phase out new licences for oil and gas production. And more than 40 countries have committed to end their domestic use of coal for electricity and 25 others have agreed to stop financing coal power in other countries. However, the US, Australia, China and India — comprising more than two-thirds of global coal consumption — did not agree to a domestic coal phase-out.
A big failure of the summit was its lack of inclusivity. Many climate activists and indigenous rights groups were left out of the main negotiations and several of them walked out of COP26 in protest, saying it was nothing more than "an illusion constructed to save the capitalist economy rooted in resource extraction and colonialism," according to Indigenous activist Ta’Kaiya Blaney of the Tla A’min Nation.
No matter how much the political leaders insist on the success of COP26, it is hard to feel hopeful looking at its lukewarm achievements. But perhaps there is hope to be found outside COP, from those who are "making the delegates more afraid than the press" — the youth who are refusing to settle for greenwashing.
COP26 has exposed deep incapacities of our governments and our systems to tackle this existential threat. Perhaps what is needed now is a redesign of our societies and our way of living if existing is indeed a goal worth strive for.
Until next week, take care and stay safe.
Hira & Philippe
The Global Tiller team
Recommended read
Note from the editor: While COP26 was taking place, I happened to be reading Kim Stanley Robinson’s ‘The Ministry for the Future’ and it made me hyper aware of the consequences of this climate summit on the future of our species. Anyone who has read this book wouldn’t take climate change as less than the catastrophic threat it is to the future of humanity. If you want to see what kind of a world weak climate summits are leading to, you should read out this book.
The Global Tiller @ COP26
Did you miss our previous issues on COP26? Don’t worry, we’ve got you covered:
