Ozone in safe zone
Issue 137 - 25 Apr 2023 (8-min read)
If you grew up in the 90s, like I did, your first memory of global warming is probably science fairs talking about the big hole in the ozone layer. In my head, I always imagined a gaping hole in the protective layer around Earth, possibly the same hole that allows rockets to go through when they go to the moon. I admit, my knowledge of science was murky at best.
My science teacher did not do a great job cultivating my interest in the subject, but all the educational campaigns to protect the ozone layer made it clear that our planet needed help. So you can imagine why I jumped with joy when I saw recent headlines that the ozone hole was healing. Have we really turned the clock around on ozone depletion? Let’s dig in.
This week in The Global Tiller, we look into latest reports claiming that the ozone layer is on a path of healing. How did we avert our planet from this crisis and what are some lessons we can take as we tackle more widespread climate challenges.
If your knowledge of science was as murky as mine, you should know that ozone isn’t a gate that opens up to let rockets go out. It is a layer of molecules floating around in the stratosphere. Ozone itself comprises three oxygen atoms (compared to the oxygen we breathe, which is made up of just two) so breathing it directly will damage our lungs but, in the stratosphere, they form a layer that absorbs ultraviolet radiation from the sun and acts as a protection for those of us living on planet Earth.
Scientists first began noticing the thinning of the ozone layer in the 1970s especially near the poles, leading them to call the area where ozone levels had dropped by more than 30% in a decade, a "hole". This research was led by scientists Mario Molina and Sherry Rowland, who also found out the cause: chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs. This chemical was found in the manufacture of aerosol sprays, blowing agents for foams and packing materials, as solvents, and as refrigerants.
Even if Molina and Rowland raised the alarm on ozone depletion, their findings only caused a flurry within the scientific community. Governments still operated under the assumption that further thinning would happen over the course of centuries, and so they had time. It was not until a decade later, when it was discovered that the depletion was happening much faster than what even the scientists had imagined, that everyone sprung into action. After all, everyone agreed that ultraviolet rays were the leading cause of skin burns and cancer-causing DNA changes — an agreement the likes of which we wish for when it comes to the current discourse on climate change. But I digress.
This unanimous agreement to take action led to perhaps one of the "most successful environmental treaty in history": the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. Adopted in 1987, the treaty bound all 197 United Nations Member States to regulate the production and consumption of nearly 100 ozone depleting chemicals.
One reason why we successfully managed to ease down our use of CFCs is because another alternative, hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HFCs), was easily available. This chemical posed a much lower threat to the ozone layer and was widely adopted in the handful of industries where CFCs were rampant, such as refrigeration, air-conditioning and foam application.
As a result, we reached the point where the 2018 Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion data revealed that the ozone layer in the stratosphere has recovered at a rate of 1-3% per decade since 2000. At these projected rates, the northern hemisphere and mid-latitude ozone is predicted to recover by around 2030, followed by the southern hemisphere around 2050, and polar regions by 2060. This was reaffirmed by the new UN assessment in January this year that the ozone hole is set to be completely healed over most of the world within two decades.
Even better, the chemicals depleting the ozone were also making the Arctic warmer much faster, so their regulation helped the polar region warm at a much slower pace than if the Montreal Protocol hadn’t happened at all.
But not all unintended consequences were positive. Since the CFCs were phased out, it has been discovered that HFCs are a potent greenhouse gas and have been contributing to global warming even if they were less harmful to the ozone layer itself. The good news is that the parties to the Montreal Protocol ratified the Kigali agreement in January 2019, promising to reduce the use of HFCs by 80% over the next 30 years.
If you are a glass half empty kind of person who sees a more divided world and a stronger corporate capture over environmental agreements, then try to take comfort in the path that the ozone protection activism has paved for us:
The picture we’re left with by the fight to heal the ozone layer is that specific individuals played a huge role in changing humanity’s trajectory but they did that mostly by enabling public activism, international diplomacy, and collective action. In the fight to improve the world, we can’t do without individuals and we can’t do without coordination mechanisms. But we should keep in mind how much we can do when we have both.
Until next time, take care and stay safe!
Hira - Editor - The Global Tiller
Dig Deeper
If you are interested in learning more about the science behind the ozone layer, you may want to check out ‘UV & You’, a Substack by research scientist Dr. Richard McKenzie who looks at how ultraviolet radiation affects humans and our planet.
…and now what?
So, so you think you can change? From hell to heaven? This Pink Floyd inspiration is actually an important question. Lately, while writing this newsletter, I felt a bit helpless and hopeless, trying to find reasons to reflect, question, diagnose and push forward while, deep inside myself, feeling some despair around our collective (and our leaders') inability to change. It is despairing to see so many things that have a solution but for which no one is willing to make the effort.
Yet, it seems like not only we can but we did. The fight against the ozone hole is a successful story. And surprisingly, it’s not really told. Doesn’t serve much as a case study for good leadership, not used in schools to show students that actually things can be positive. It’s not even a nursery rhyme that will get babies into the habit of believing in human beings!
Fortunately, it was recognised a few years ago by the Future of Life Institute Awards that “honours individuals who, without having received much recognition at the time of their achievements, helped make today dramatically better than it might otherwise have been.” In 2021, the prize was awarded to the three scientists who have led the battle to convince states to sign the agreement. They were: Joseph Farman, Susan Solomon, Stephen Andersen and all those who helped them along the way.
Why didn’t we celebrate them more? They were not head of states, entrepreneurs, NGO leaders. They were not working on a stage but in laboratories through their research and publications. And that may be why. They don’t fit the typical “hero leader” who dedicated their life to a fight, spoke fluently about the topic, led protests, or marched somewhere. Yet, their leadership is exemplary. They have concrete results to show for it. More than what can be said for many who are awarded the Noble Peace Prize (I won’t take names as I don’t want to deconstruct the legend of a certain awardee from 2009, but happy to talk about it…).
Same goes actually for many other awardees from the Future of Life Institute: from those who managed to get rid of smallpox to the unknown Russian submariner who managed to be the necessary clog in the prevention of a nuclear catastrophe during the Cuban Missile Crisis.
All those people shone through their actions, their ethics, their ability to see way beyond their personal horizon and to focus on the important work more than on the visible tasks at hand.
In a world where it seems more important to be seen, to be outspoken, to shine in the digital life than to be doing the hard menial work, those examples are key to study. We owe them our lives (and the not-so-hurtful sunburns).
They remind us that sometimes leadership is not visible. It is not about big actions, or about sound and light. It’s about having a clear understanding of the problem, defining actionable solutions, building a plan and taking our pilgrim’s cane to humbly knock on every door, talking to each person, taking responsibility and doing what is right even if nobody sees us.
So as we’re celebrating the healing planet (on the specific element of the ozone layer, unfortunately for now), let’s celebrate sound and humble leadership, the kind that we need for problems that may call for heroism when we look at their scale, but will actually be solved by discreet hard workers, one simple task at a time.
It’s by being another solid and reliable brick in the wall that we can build a solid change for all.
Philippe - Founder & CEO - Pacific Ventury
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Finally, some evidence that a little does go a long way. What a ride that has been (as a child of the 90s!) Thank you for the great read and providing a modicum of hope for meaningful action against cc